U.S. soybean planted will increase in 2026 compared with a year earlier, while planted area for several other major crops – including corn - is expected to decline, according to new projections from CoBank.
Released Tuesday, the outlook from one of the largest private providers of credit to the U.S. rural economy reflects the mounting pressure low crop prices and high production costs are placing on farmers as spring planting decisions approach.
CoBank estimates U.S. soybean acreage will increase by nearly 6% this year to 86 million acres, as soybeans pull land away from corn, wheat, cotton, rice and other crops. Stronger relative pricing, expanding domestic soy crush capacity, and expectations of continued Chinese demand have improved soybean profit prospects compared with competing crops, the CoBank report said. Following a historically large corn acreage in 2025, more land is also available to rotate into soybeans, particularly as farmers look to reduce marketing risk amid record corn inventories.
Corn acreage, by contrast, is projected to fall 4.8% year over year to 94 million acres. While corn remains supported by relatively steady demand, last year’s heavy plantings and large carryout supplies are encouraging producers in the Midwest to shift acres into other crops, most notably soybeans. Corn is expected to gain some ground in western regions and parts of the northern Plains, where depressed soybean basis levels and stronger corn yield performance are prompting growers to favour corn over soybeans. Still, nationally, corn is expected to give up ground as rotation needs and inventory concerns weigh on planting intentions.
As for wheat, CoBank sees spring wheat plantings slipping about 1% from last year to 9.89 million acres due to weaker yield performance and lower profit potential relative to corn and soybeans. However, the report cautions that wheat acres remain sensitive to price signals, and a sharper-than-expected reduction in plantings could spark a rally that alters final acreage decisions. U.S. durum acres are projected to fall 3% to 2.12 million acres.
The outlook from CoBank contrasts slightly with February baseline projections from the USDA on Friday. The government baseline projections put 2026 national soybean planted area lower at 85 million acres and corn acreage higher at 95 million acres. Despite those differences, both sets of projections point to the same broad theme: soybeans are gaining favour in a challenging farm economy.
The USDA baseline projections put total 2026 U.S. wheat area at 44 million acres, down from 45.3 million a year earlier and the lowest since 2020.
Notably, CoBank projected total 2026 rice planted area in the U.S. at just 2.83 million acres - the lowest in 30 years and a year-over-year decline of 20%.
